USDA raises estimate for corn production in January WASDE

By Erin Voegele | January 12, 2018

The USDA has released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for January, reporting larger corn production, increased food, seed and industrial use, lower estimates for feed and residual use, and reporting greater stocks.

Corn production is currently estimated at 14.604 billion bushels, up 26 million bushels when compared to the December WASDE. The increase is attributed to an increase in yield, which reached a record 176.6 bushels per acre. The increase was was partially offset by a 400,000 acre reduction in harvested area. Among the major producing states, yields are estimated to be record high in Illinois, Minnesota and Ohio.

The estimate for food, seed and industrial use is raised 10 million bushels, reflecting an estimated amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose during September-November that was above expectations. For ethanol and byproducts, projected corn use is unchanged at 5.525 billion bushels. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels, falling to 5.55 billion based on indicated disappearance during September-November as reflected by the Dec. 1 stocks.

Corn stocks are up 40 million bushels when compared to December. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $3.25 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint based on observed prices to date.

Foreign corn production is forecast lower, with reductions for Russia, Vietnam and the Philippines more than offsetting an increase for Pakistan. Russia’s corn production is down based on harvest results to date. Vietnam corn production is reduced as the impact of heavy rain during the growing season in the northern production areas was worse than previously expected.

Lower 2017-’18 corn exports are expected for Russia, partially offset by an increase for Thailand. Brazil’s 2016-’17 corn exports are reduced based on observed shipments to date for the local marketing year, which started in March. Imports for 2017-18 are lowered for Iran, but increased for Vietnam and Philippines. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher than last month, mostly reflecting increases for Brazil and Pakistan. Global corn stocks are at 206.6 million, up 2.5 million from last month.